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SD High School Hoops Playoff Forecast

I know that we’re all checking the weather forecast to see how far below zero the temps will drop or how much snow will come, but there’s a new, more positive forecast you can check now. It’s the South Dakota high school hoops playoff forecast!

The playoffs are just around the corner. Most teams have just a couple games of regular season play remaining, so it’s time to reveal my playoff forecast for SD high school basketball.

I developed an algorithm to give an accurate projection as to which teams have the best chance to play in the “SoDak 16” (or the round of 16 in Class A and Class B), to advance to the state tournament and to take home the championship. The factors in the formula include:

  • Score differential
  • Strength of schedule
  • Emphasis on the last two weeks of play
  • Quantity of wins and losses
  • Quality of wins and losses
  • Team injuries
  • Team’s consistency

I threw all that information into the computer, and it churned out the following numbers.

Boys AA% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
SF Lincoln 98% 14%
Yankton 94%  11% 
SF O'Gorman 92% 11% 
Brandon Valley  74%  10% 
SF Roosevelt  72%  9% 
RC Stevens  71%  9% 
Huron 68%  8% 
Harrisburg 58%  7% 
Sturgis Brown 46%  6% 
Watertown  35% 5% 
SF Washington  28% 3% 
RC Central 27%  2% 
Brookings 18%  2% 
Pierre T.F. Riggs 8%  1% 
Mitchell 6%  1% 
Aberdeen Central 2%  <1% 
Spearfish 1%  <1% 
 Douglas 1%  <1% 

 

Girls AA% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
SF O'Gorman 98% 18%
SF Lincoln  94%  14% 
Brandon Valley   92% 14%
Brookings   70%  12% 
Harrisburg  69%  11% 
SF Washington  68% 10% 
RC Stevens   68%  9% 
Mitchell  59%  7% 
Sturgis Brown  48%  1% 
Douglas   35%  1% 
RC Central   34%  1% 
Yankton  33%  1% 
Aberdeen Central  18%  1% 
Huron  8%  <1% 
SF Roosevelt   6%  <1% 
Watertown  2%  <1% 
Pierre T.F. Riggs   1%  <1% 
Spearfish   1%  <15 

 

Boys A% Chance to Make SoDak16% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
Tea Area 99% 98% 46%
SF Christian 99% 91% 16%
St. Thomas More  99% 90% 14%
Lennox 55% 50% 5%
Tiospa Zina  91% 67% 3%
Pine Ridge  87% 72% 3%
Parker  93% 68% 3%
Red Cloud  63% 51% 3%
Dakota Valley  44% 33% 1%
Aberdeen Roncalli 63% 22% 1%
Sioux Valley  86% 37% 1%
Cheyenne-Eagle Butte  84% 31% 1%
Little Wound 38% 22% 1%
RC Christian 66% 15% <1%
Winner  14% 7% <1%
Hot Springs 38% 6% <1%
Vermillion 8% 6% <1%
Madison 53% 5% <1%
Dell Rapids 53% 5% <1%
Hamlin 43% 5% <1%
Platte-Geddes 59% 4% <1%
Mobridge-Pollock 51% 4% <1%
West Central 24% 3% <1%
Todd County 11% 2% <1%
Flandreau 38% 2% <1%
Bon Homme  41% 2% <1%
Redfield/Doland 29% 1% <1%

 

Girls A% Chance to Make SoDak16% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
West Central  99% 98% 23%
Winner 96% 94% 22%
Lennox 93% 84% 19%
St. Thomas More 93% 78% 13%
Todd County 89% 73% 8%
Vermillion 57% 40% 5%
McCook Central/Montrose  93% 68% 4%
Belle Fourche 94% 67% 3%
SF Christian 64% 42% 3%
Hamlin 92% 66% 2%
Flandreau 72% 28% 2%
Miller 82% 1% 1%
Redfield/Doland 87% 8% 1%
Beresford 48% 1% 1%
Dell Rapids 24% 1% 1%
Hill City  13% 14% 1%
Aberdeen Roncalli  89% 18% 1%
Pine Ridge  26% 6% 1%
Red Cloud 15% 1% 1%
Crow Creek 67% 4% <1%
Mt. Vernon/Plankinton 34% 3% <1%
Cheyenee Eagle Butte  39% 3% <1%
Parkston  62% 2% <1%
Flandreau Indian  20% <1% <1%
Little Wound 14% <1% <1%
Garretson  14% <1% <1%
Lead-Deadwood 5% <1% <1%

 

Boys B% Chance to Make SoDak16% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
Clark/Willow Lake 95% 91% 19%
Bridgewater-Emery 89% 84% 18%
White River 99% 88% 17%
Viborg-Hurley 87% 79% 15%
De Smet 86% 72% 10%
Sully Buttes 82% 68% 8%
Timber Lake 99% 84% 6%
Jones County 88% 36% 2%
Hanson 62% 42% 1%
Northwestern 45% 23% 1%
Warner 44% 22% 1%
Aberdeen Christian 44% 33% 1%
Dell St. Rapids St. Mary  38% 8% 1%
Canistota 24% 10% <1%
Kimball/White Lake 72% 9% <1%
Leola/Frederick Area 62% 7% <1%
Colman-Egan 40% 7% <1%
Irene-Wakonda 16% 7% <1%
Colome 46% 6% <1%
Arlington 65% 5% <1%
Lower Brule 36% 5% <1%
Lemmon 58% 5% <1%
Potter County 38% 3% <1%
Highmore-Harrold 35% 3% <1%
Corsica-Stickney 15% 3% <1%
Faith 13% 2% <1%
Wolsey-Wessington 14% 1% <1%
Herreid/Selby Area 5% 1% <1%
Harding County 15% 1% <1%
Sanborn Central/Woonsocket 4% 1% <1%
Kadoka Area 10% 1% <1%
Oelrichs 4% 1% <1%
Gayville-Volin 8% 0% <1%
James Valley Christian 5% 0% <1%
Elkton-Lake Benton 5% 0% <1%
Faulkton Area 4% 0% <1%
Bison 3% 0% <1%
Marty 2% 0% <1%

 

Girls B% Chance to Make SoDak16% Chance to Make State% Chance to Win It
Ethan  99% 98% 42%
Warner 91% 72% 18%
Corsica-Stickney 92% 74% 16%
De Smet  87% 87% 7%
Faith 96% 88% 5%
Freeman 80% 56% 4%
Deubrook Area 62% 44% 2%
Ipswich 66% 51% 1%
New Underwood 72% 46% 1%
White River 62% 33% 1%
Clark/Willow Lake 73% 26% 1%
Bridgewater-Emery 71% 25% 1%
Avon 70% 24% <1%
Herreid/Selby Area 58% 16% <1%
Tripp-Delmont/Armour 36% 10% <1%
Hanson 51% 8% <1%
Irene-Wakonda 45% 7% <1%
Kadoka Area 49% 5% <1%
Faulkton Area 42% 5% <1%
Estelline/Hendricks 26% 4% <1%
Andes Central/Dakota Christian 12% 3% <1%
Florence/Henry 21% 3% <1%
Langford Area 13% 3% <1%
Sully Buttes 22% 3% <1%
Timber Lake 55% 3% <1%
Menno 9% 2% <1%
Castlewood 14% 2% <1%
McIntosh 46% 2% <1%
Wall 15% 1% <1%
Waubay/Summit 6% 1% <1%
Viborg-Hurley 17% 1% <1%
Lower Brule  11% <1% <1%
Waverly-South Shore 9% <1% <1%
Arlington 8% <1% <1%
Wolsey-Wessington  9% <1% <1%
Highmore-Harrold 5% <1% <1%

 

If the playoffs started today, and the favored teams won in their regions, this would be the SoDak 16 pairings:

Boys AA

  • 16-Spearfish at 1-SF Lincoln
  • 15-Mitchell at 2-Yankton
  • 14-Pierre at 3-Brandon Valley
  • 13-Brookings at 4-SF O’Gorman
  • 12-RC Central at 5-SF Roosevelt
  • 11-SF Washington at 6-RC Stevens
  • 10-Watertown at 7-Huron
  • 9-Sturgis Brown at 8-Harrisburg

Girls AA

  • 16-Watertown at 1-SF O’Gorman
  • 15-SF Roosevelt at 2-SF Lincoln
  • 14-Huron at 3-Brandon Valley
  • 13-Aberdeen Central at 4-Brookings
  • 12-Yankton at 5-Harrisburg
  • 11-Douglas at 6-SF Washington
  • 10-RC Central at 7-RC Stevens
  • 9-Sturgis Brown at 8-Mitchell

Boys A

  • 16-Platte-Geddes vs 1-Tea Area
  • 15-Mobridge-Pollock vs 2-SF Christian
  • 14-Dell Rapids at 3-St. Thomas More
  • 13-Madison vs 4-Pine Ridge
  • 12-Sioux Valley vs 5-Tiospa Zina
  • 11-Aberdeen Roncalli vs 6-Parker
  • 10-RC Christian vs 7-Lennox
  • 9-Cheyenne-Eagle Butte vs 8-Red Cloud

Girls A

  • 16-Crow Creek vs 1-West Central
  • 15-Parkston vs 2-Winner
  • 14-Miller vs 3- Todd County
  • 13-Redfield/Doland vs 4-Belle Fourche
  • 12- Aberdeen Roncalli vs 5-Hamlin
  • 11-SF Christian vs 6-St. Thomas More
  • 10-Flandreau vs 7-Lennox
  • 9-Vermillion vs 8-McCook Central/Montrose

Boys B

  • 16-Lemmon vs 1-White River
  • 15-Colome vs 2-Timber Lake
  • 14-Colman-Egan vs 3-Jones County
  • 13-Arlington vs 4-Bridgewater-Emery
  • 12- Kimball/White Lake vs 5-Clark/Willow Lake
  • 11-Leola/Frederick Area vs 6-De Smet
  • 10-Hanson vs 7-Sully Buttes
  • 9-Northwestern vs 8-Viborg-Hurley

Girls B

  • 16-Timber Lake vs 1-Ethan
  • 15-Hanson vs 2-De Smet
  • 14-Tripp-Delmont/Armour vs 3-Faith
  • 13-Herreid/Selby Area vs 4-Corsica-Stickney
  • 12- Bridgewater-Emery vs 5-Warner
  • 11-Clark/Willow Lake vs 6-Deubrook Area
  • 10-White River vs 7-Freeman
  • 9-New Underwood vs 8-Ipswich
Filed Under Power Rankings | Basketball | Varsity Sports | SD High School